Weather Forecast and Discussion - January 10, 2024

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
Wednesday January 10, 2024 @ 3:40 am 

KEY MESSAGES: 
1.) A very similar storm system moves in on Friday with more rain and gusty winds! 
2.) a blast of arctic air will move into the region this weekend and early next week. Destructively cold temperatures are forecast with lows approaching zero. 
3.) Potential remains for an impactful winter storm Sunday night into Monday. 

SHORT TERM: 
Finally, after a windy last couple days, the winds have begun to taper off! This trend will continue, but things will remain relatively tranquil for the next 24-30 hours. Business however picks up with Thursday night as a strong upper trough moves out of the Rockies. Models are in decent agreement with a moderate-heavy rain band moving through the forecast region, bringing a much needed 1-2 inches of rain. The bigger impact however may come from the strong gradient winds. Winds could gust at 40 to 50 mph, and there is some concern that these gusts could be slightly higher. This screams wind advisory, but will have to monitor wind gusts closely as they could come close to high wind warning/First Alert weather day criteria. Behind this system, much colder air filters into the area ahead of our next storm system. 

LONG TERM: 

*** HIGH IMPACT/DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK***

Heading into the weekend, temperatures will be much colder and will remain very cold through much of next week. This cold air is going to set the stage for the potential for a major winter storm Sunday night into Monday. Global models continue to remain very consistent with showing a winter storm over our area, so winter storm wording will continue to be advertised. Accumulating/significant snowfall is very much a possibility, with moderate to high impacts to roads, and everyday life seemingly possible. Aside from winter storm potential, the main life safety impact will be the extreme cold that is on the way for next week. This cold is going to make for a particularly dangerous situation with low temperatures approaching zero, if not lower across much of the area. Wind chills Monday-Wednesday morning will likely drop well below -15 degrees, creating extremely dangerous conditions. Assuming we have decent snowpack, these numbers could be several degrees lower than what the models are advertising. We will certainly need First Alert Weather Day's during this time period, but will continue to hold off on issuing those with this forecast package. 

CONFIDENCE: 
Medium confidence on long term snow impacts
High confidence on all other forecast elements 

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