Weather Forecast and Discussion: January 12, 2024

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE: 
FRIDAY JANUARY 12, 2024 @ 7:52 AM 

KEY MESSAGES: 
1.) A stormy/active day expected today with highs winds, heavy rain all forecast for today. This makes today a "First Alert Weather Day". 

2.) A very dangerous and potentially damaging blast of arctic air will envelop the entire area Saturday night. A week or more of below freezing temperatures is expected. Wind chills below zero and as low as -10 to  -20 is forecast. 

3.) Accumulating Snow fall is possible Sunday night into Monday. Still too early to talk about amounts. 

SHORT TERM: (Today Through Saturday)
A very active morning of weather is underway across the area. We do have a Tornado Watch that is in effect for the far southern counties of West Tennessee. This is the area where the greatest chances of severe weather will remain for the rest of the morning, before this system moves out of here. Over the rest of the area, rain is on-going. Expect most locations to pick up anywhere between 1-2 inches of rain by this time tonight. Perhaps, the bigger story today will be the potential for strong damaging winds, not related to thunderstorms. Forecast models continue to paint widespread 45-55 mph wind gusts, with some forecasting guidance exceeding 60 mph wind gusts for parts of the area. With the rain falling, and the ground being somewhat wet, there is serious concern for power outages, and falling trees today. Make sure to charge your devices! Behind this system, arctic air plunges into the Mid South, and this ultimately sets the stage for accumulating snowfall and bitter cold temperatures by late weekend into next week. 

LONG TERM: 
Picking up with Sunday, Sunday will start dry, but very cold. We may wake up to temperatures in the 20s on Sunday morning. Temperatures will not moderate much, but the clouds will stream into the area ahead of our next storm system. By Sunday night, accumulating snow is expected to engulf the entire Mid South. Forecast models continue to struggle on the amount of accumulation. However, considering the amount of cold air in place, and the saturated dendritic growth zone, it seems plausible that the forecast models maybe undergoing snowfall amounts. On the basis of this assessment, do not want to make any forecast snow totals until tomorrow at the earliest, which is when we will be in range of the high resolution forecast guidance, which should give us a better idea of how much. Regardless of how much snow falls, the snow will create hazards on roads, creating tricky travel, as ground temperatures will be below freezing. Expect travel impacts Sunday night - Wednesday as a result. Snow aside, bitter cold temperatures will remain through mid week as forecast lows in the single digits and wind chills well below zero. A wind chill advisory or wind chill warning will be needed. 

Long range models depict an additional low pressure system impacting the Mid South Thursday night. It appears possible that additional wintry precipitation will fall as a result. It is too early to iron out all the details with this one, so stay tuned to later forecast packages for details! 

CONFIDENCE: 
High confidence on all forecast elements 

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