Weather Forecast and Discussion - January 15

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE
MONDAY JANUARY 15, 2024 @ 3:40 PM CST

...DISCUSSION...
Snow accumulation has officially ended in West Tennessee (for now!), but the impact continues to be significant. Snow/ice covered road remains, and conditions are not expected to improve as temperatures will remain bitterly cold. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits tonight, with wind chills -3 to -8 degrees area wide. As a result, we will have a wind chill advisory through 10:00 am on Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate some on Wednesday, but probably not above freezing, with sunshine expected all day. The NBM guidance puts temperatures in the upper 20s on Wednesday, but feel this is a bit too high considering snowpack on the ground. 

Things get tricky heading into Thursday. Another advancing system is expected to approach the Mid South. Guidance seems to want to rapidly increase temperatures above freezing for areas south of I-40, and keep temperatures right at or very near freezing for areas north of I-40. The arctic air mass looks slow to exit the area, keeping temperatures aloft on the cool side and large snow accumulations will help keep ground temperatures below freezing. Deterministic soundings show the temperature line to ride just below freezing, but this does not account for snow pack across the area. A lot of uncertainty remains with respect to the timing, evolution, precipitation type, and impacts of this system, but prepare for at least a mixed bag of wintry precipitation (snow, sleet, freezing rain) as early as Thursday morning. 

This weekend, another shot of arctic air will move into the mid south bringing overnight lows down into the teens. While it looks to remain cold and chilly, there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. The 8-14 day temperature outlook from the climate prediction center shows 50-60% of above normal temperatures for the entire mid south. 

CONFIDENCE: 
Low confidence on Thurs wintry weather
High confidence on all other forecast elements. 

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