Weather Forecast and Discussion: January 12 - PM update

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE:

FRIDAY JANUARY 12, 2024 @ 4:10 PM CST

KEY MESSAGES: 

1.) A Winter storm is taking aim at the Mid South for Sunday night and Monday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the entire mid south

2.) Bitter cold is now filtering into the Mid South. The air will only get colder from here on out. 

3.) The combination of snowfall and bitter cold will create hazardous travel Monday and Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. 

SHORT TERM: 

Latest surface analysis depicts a reinforcing cold front parallel to the Mississippi River. Behind the front, temperatures have dipped into the upper teens and lower 20s in West and Central Arkansas. These air temperatures will filter into the Mid South causing overnight lows to drop into the 20s overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Ahead of this front, strong gusty winds will continue to be in the 20-30 mph range with gusts near 50 mph at times. A wind advisory remains in effect areawide through Midnight tonight. Cool and dry conditions are expected tomorrow and throughout the day on Sunday ahead of an arctic airmass and associated cold front. 

LONG TERM: 

*** WINTER STORM LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ***

the primary focus for the long term forecast issuance is the accumulating snowfall and the bitter cold temperatures that will follow suit. Recent forecast models have increased forecast snow amounts across the entire Mid South, as the latest soundings indicate an 800 mb moisture plume situated directly over the Mid South. The dendritic growth zone is now forecast  to be completely saturated for a large portion of the Mid South. Additionally, previous forecasts also showed a large dry slot above the surface, which would support less snowfall, and a drier snow. With more saturation in place. snowfall looks to be more wet, fluffy flakes and accumulation occurrence is more likely. Temperatures will generally be in the teens and 20s across the area, so accumulation on roads is very likely, creating hazardous travel for the holiday on Monday and likely into Tuesday as well. The last change with this forecast issuance is the track of the low pressure system is trending further south, which limits snow accumulation near the TN/KY border, and increases it for everyone else. Ice accumulation appears to be very limited as very deep cold air will be in place. As a result of all these factors, A Winter Storm watch has been issued and will go into effect at 12:00 pm Sunday until 6:00 am Tuesday for the entire mid south. A First Alert Weather Day has also been issued Sunday through Wednesday which covers the potential for both accumulating snow, and dangerous cold. If these trends continue, expect the Winter Storm Watch to be upgraded to a winter storm warning . The other concern is bitter cold which remains largely on track from the previous few forecasts. It seems rather likely that wind chill advisories or warnings will be needed as wind chills drop to -15 to -20 areawide. 

Dry conditions will return to the forecast for Tuesday, and Wednesday. Temperatures however will remain below freezing, so any snow that falls will remain on the ground. On Thursday, model guidance is hinting at another area of low pressure tracking through the mid south, bringing another chance of wintry precipitation to the area. Its too early to be any more specific, so stay tuned to later forecasts for updates. 

CONFIDENCE: 

Medium confidence on winter storm

High confidence on all other forecast elements.