Brady's Weather Blog

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 1:38 pm CST Tuesday February 28, 2023 SHORT TERM :  The short term forecast this afternoon is...for the most part uneventful. A beautiful day weather wise is underway across the mid south. Temperatures are in the 70s areawide with a breeze in the air. Looking ahead too tomorrow, The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night for areas south of I-40. Looking at the parameters, favorable CAPE and some modest wind shear will probably support a gusty wind/hail threat. Weak SRH values, combined with weak height falls will probably keep the threat for tornadoes at bay.  LONG TERM :  **** SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THURSDAY PM- FRIDAY AM***  The main focus in today's long term forecast issuance is the expected significant severe weather outbreak which is expected to unfold Thursday evening through Friday morning ac...

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 1:38 pm CST Monday February 20, 2023 SHORT TERM : The short term forecast remains a non-eventful one for the most part. Current radar analysis shows no rain, with lots of sunshine. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s for everyone. This warming trend will continue for the next couple of days as a southerly flow aloft sets in. Tuesday looks to be a rinse and repeat of today, but with windier conditions and increasing clouds in the afternoon. Rain chances look very minimal Tuesday, though a passing shower cannot totally be ruled out given the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere  LONG TERM :  An active long term period is upon us! Starting off with Wednesday, It will be a very very (use your favorite adjective!) warm day across the Mid South. Temperatures will surge into the Mid 70s to possibly near 80 in most places. These warm, spring like temperatures will challenge all time records for the month if the forec...

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 1:07 pm CST Sunday February 19, 2023 SHORT TERM :  A pleasant day is underway across the Mid South this afternoon. Temperatures at the top of the hour were around 60 degrees in most places. Hope your enjoying the pleasant weather while you can, because a very active week of weather is in store, and it all begins in the short term forecast. Starting with Monday, the majority of the area should remain dry. Cannot totally rule out a passing shower near the TN/KY border as as a fast moving shortwave moves through, but most of us will remain dry, with windy conditions. Temperatures are expected to be quite warm as well with most places in the upper 60s. Tuesday will be mere repeat of Monday. A passing shower is possible, but the same scenario exists. The 7 day forecast reflects most areas remaining dry and Windy on both days with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s areawide.  LONG TERM :  Wednesday will be a very warm da...

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 12:01 pm CST Saturday February 18, 2023 SHORT TERM : Not much going on weather wise in the short term forecast. High pressure is expected to be in firm control of our weather through early Monday morning. Temperatures will be on a steady rise for the next couple days. By Monday afternoon, model guidance is split on whether or not a minor disturbance can push some rain showers into the mid south. Given the split model guidance, decided to play it down the middle and mention a slight chance of a few showers for Monday afternoon/evening time frame, with better chances of rain Tuesday as depicted by the majority of the medium range and long range forecast guidance. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to near 70 through the Tuesday timeframe.  LONG TERM :  On Wednesday, A potent upper level low pressure system is progged to eject out of Texas and into the mid south region late afternoon Wednesday. A southwesterly flow aloft ...

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion - UPDATED  Brady's Weather Page 6:25 pm CST Wednesday February 15, 2023 Currently...radars are quiet, though convection is starting to form over portions of North central Mississippi at this hour. We remain on track for a long duration nocturnal severe weather outbreak for tonight, potentially starting as early as 8:00 pm. Recent forecast guidance is suggesting more Instability, which is going to increase the severe weather potential substantially. Guidance is also suggesting storms may hang around a lot longer tomorrow morning. This potential will be monitored closely. Prepare NOW for a dangerous night severe weather. Have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and know your tornado safe place!

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 1:05 pm CST Wednesday February 15, 2023 ** SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATER TODAY ** A particularly dangerous severe weather event is expected to unfold starting late this afternoon and lasting well into the overnight hours. Currently, lots of sun is being observed around the area. This is aiding in atmosphere destabilization. Most areas are near 70 degrees, however warm air advection is expected to continue, which will bring daytime highs to near record levels for most places. Looking at severe weather parameters, current CAMs show robust Instability ranging from 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE, and 300-350 m2/s2 of SRH. This combined with a strong LLJ (Low Level Jet) will prime the atmosphere for tornadoes, some strong and very strong damaging winds later on today.  After today, temperatures drop for the weekend, and our airmass goes back into a stable condition. Early next week, rain returns to the forecast for Monday ...

 Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 1:03 pm CST Tuesday February 14, 2023 Happy Valentines Day!!! Current radar analysis early this afternoon shows a line of showers from about Kennett Missouri to Lepanto Arkansas to near Memphis Tennessee at this hour. This line of showers will continue to quickly move to the east. Behind this line, very strong gradient winds are expected. Wind gusts this afternoon could reach as high as 50 MPH. A wind advisory remains in effect for all of West Tennessee this afternoon. We also have a First Alert weather day in effect for the strong gusty winds.  Tomorrow, all eyes to the skies...Literally! Most of the day tomorrow is largely expected to be dry with lots of sunshine. There are indication some clouds could build in as early as late morning, but confidence is low. Warm Air advection is expected to settle in as a warm front lifts north through the Mid South. This will allow temperatures to skyrocket into the 70s, and dewpoin...

  𝗙𝗜𝗥𝗦𝗧 𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗥𝗧 𝗪𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗗𝗔𝗬 - 𝗧𝗨𝗘𝗦𝗗𝗔𝗬  I am issuing a FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY for Tuesday (February 14) for the potential for very strong gradient winds (Not related to Thunderstorms). The National weather service has issued a Wind advisory for all of West Tennessee indicating wind gusts as high as 50 MPH is likely. This level of wind can cause tree damage and powerline damage. Power outages are possible, especially since the ground is very moist. A separate First Alert Weather Day may need to be declared for Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for the severe weather potential. Stay tuned!

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 10:00 am CST Monday February 13, 2023 A tranquil day is on tap for the mid south as surface riding from a 1022 MB high pressure over New Orleans Louisiana sets in. Today should be pleasant with lights winds around 5 to 10 mph, mostly sunny skies, and temperatures at or around 60F. We'll see a warming trend for a few days to come, climbing several degrees by midweek. A strong low pressure system is expected to approach the mid south tomorrow, and will bring not only a chance for some rain showers, but a very strong pressure gradient. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph tomorrow. A wind advisory will be needed at some point in future forecast packages.  Tomorrow's system looks to occlude long before it reaches the mid south, and resulting in the Instability being "pinched off". As a result, thunder is becoming increasingly unlikely to occur with this system. The aforementioned southerly gradient winds will play ...

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 3:40 pm CST Sunday February 12, 2023 Pleasant conditions across the Mid-South this afternoon. A significant amount of dry air has settled over the region causing dewpoints to drop into the teens, but temperatures are verily mild with temps in the mid 50s to near 60 areawide. Tranquil weather is expected to continue for one more day across the area, before a series of storm systems could bring rain, and severe thunderstorms to the area. The severe weather threat for Wednesday PM - Thursday morning will be the main topic of discussion in today's forecast issuance.  The first of two storm systems is expected to arrive on Tuesday. The first half of Tuesday is expected to be dry. By the afternoon, a weak cold front is expected to move through the area, bringing widespread rain showers. Thunderstorms are not expected with this initial round of rain as Instability looks very minimal at best. The greater for Tuesday will be the ti...

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 10:03 am CST Saturday February 11, 2023 Current radar analysis late this morning shows clear, calm and quiet conditions as anticipated at this hour. Temperatures are currently in the 40s but should rise to near 50 degrees by late afternoon. Currently a surface low is sitting over the Florida Panhandle, and is expected to eject northward and bring a possible tornado threat to parts of Florida later today. In our area, this surface low could allow some wrap around rain showers to develop across far southern west Tennessee and north Mississippi. There is very low confidence in this scenario, so the current forecast reflects a dry pattern for today, with mostly sunny skies. These clear, calm, and quiet conditions will continue through the weekend with temperatures moderating to 60 degrees or higher by Monday of next week.  Beyond Monday, attention shifts to Tuesday where the first of 2 storm systems that will likely impact the mid...

Daily Blog and Forecast Discussion Brady's Weather Page 1:53 pm CST Friday February 10, 2023 A little chill is in the air today around the mid south. Current temperatures are mostly in the upper 40s to near 50 areawide. Clouds have remained stubborn today. A northwest flow aloft will allow this trend to continue for the rest of today and tonight. By tomorrow, the sun should make a return. The northwest flow aloft will continue to allow for a chill to remain in the air. Highs and overnight lows will be around average for this time of the year through the weekend.  By early to middle next week, attention shifts to two potentially impactful storm systems which appear likely to impact the mid south. The first will come on Tuesday, with mostly a rain event. Surface based Instability appears to be near zero, so severe weather is not expected on Tuesday. Some elevated CAPE is showing up on some of the model guidance this afternoon, so a few rumbles of thunder cannot be totally ruled out. ...

 Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 7:55 am CST Friday February 3, 2023 Good Morning Mid-South! A frigid morning is in progress across the area. Temperatures are in the low to mid 20s areawide. The sun has finally come out, and temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 30s. With all the sunshine expected, expect some melting of the ice that fell over the last few days. Much of the area will experience cold air advection today, keeping temperatures close to freezing.  By The weekend, a warm front will stall over area and will allow temperatures to reach the lower 60s. A dry airmass across the area will keep things dry. By Tuesday, another storm system will begin to approach the area. Rain is likely Wednesday and Thursday. This could potentially end up being a flooding event for the area. PWAT's are suggesting the potential for heavy rain. Will leave heavy rain out of the forecast for now, but will mention just rain until models come into better agreement. ...