Brady's Weather Blog

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 8:12 am CST Monday January 30, 2023 🚨*** ICE STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIDDAY ***🚨 The focus of today's forecast issuance will be on the impending ice storm which is poised to impact the Mid-South later tonight through Wednesday Midday.  Overnight, model guidance trended significantly higher with ice accumulations across the area. Now expect a quarter to a half inch of ice accumulation across the majority of West Tennessee. As a result of this significant increase, The National Weather Service did hoist an ICE STORM WARNING for 90% of West Tennessee through noon Wednesday. Expect near impossible travel, tree damage, and some power outages. Travel is strongly discouraged through Midday Wednesday. For the other 10% of West Tennessee, there is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect through the same time frame. In these areas, sleet will mix in with the freezing rain, and should keep overall storm total...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 10:00 pm CST Sunday January 29, 2023 Currently radar analysis tonight shows generally light to some patches of moderate rain falling primarily south of I-40 from Jackson to Selmer TN and points east. Temperatures at this hour are in the upper 30s and low 40s areawide. Expect this shower activity to taper off after midnight tonight. Tomorrow we will be "in between" systems. A cloudy day will be in store for the area. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 35 degrees in most places, but areas near Memphis could reach 40, especially if the sun comes out.  By tomorrow night, temperatures will drop below freezing and the precipitation could start earlier than previously projected. Latest computer model guidance has increased precipitation once again over the area, and therefore Ice amounts have come up slightly. Computer model guidance remains all over the place with respect to accumulations, however the bottom line here is...We are v...

  𝗙𝗜𝗥𝗦𝗧 𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗥𝗧 𝗪𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗗𝗔𝗬 - 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗡𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗪𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆 Possibly up to 3 disturbances could bring sleet, freezing rain, and possibly some snow to our area, making travel pretty difficult beginning Monday night and last potentially into Wednesday. If more freezing rain falls than currently forecast, bigger problems could arise, making for a dangerous situation across the area. Therefore, after careful consideration, I have activated a FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY during the timeframe we are "most" concerned with this potential. Stay weather aware over the next 36 hours. Prepare now for slick travel.

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 5:55 am CST Saturday January 28, 2023 Currently, things are clear, calm and quiet across the mid south. Skies will remain clear through the morning, but the clouds will quickly increase this afternoon. Some guidance tries to bring rain into our region by late afternoon, but confidence in this scenario is low, and so will mention a chance of a sprinkle for now and nothing more. The potential for several rounds of wintry weather next week will be the focus of today's forecast issuance.  Bottom line up front: Impacts from ice accumulations are likely Tuesday morning, and possible Wednesday and Thursday.  Latest forecast guidance has trended temperatures 1-2 degrees cooler over the past day. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate mostly freezing rain and possibly mixed with sleet along and north of I-40 next week. Rain will develop Monday night to west of our area associated with a low amplitude shortwave passage. Guidance has also spe...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 12:11 pm CST Friday January 27, 2023 Clear skies, and windy conditions are in place around the mid south this midday. A wind advisory has been issued for parts of West Tennessee (North of I-40) through 5pm this evening. Expect winds to gradually decrease after 5 pm. These clear, calm, and quiet conditions will not last, as our next system is poised to bring rainfall to the area Sunday morning. QPF amounts look to remain generally light Sunday, so flooding should not be a concern.  On Monday, temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees, and the sun will struggle to peek through the thick cloud deck. I cannot totally rule out peeks of sun, but at the moment, expect mostly cloudy skies Monday. We should remain precipitation free.  Confidence is increasing with respect to wintry precipitation early to middle of next week. A 1036 MB high will drop down into the Plains during the day Tuesday. Precipitation chances will gradually increa...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 9:37 am CST Wednesday January 25, 2023 Good Morning West Tennessee! A quiet day is in store for us. Temperatures around the area are in the 30s and some low 40s. Clouds will be hit or miss today, but there should also be some sunshine. A quiet next couple days of is expected with a gradual warm up into the low to mid 50s by Saturday. On Sunday, our next shot of rain arrives, with nearly all of the global models showing our area getting rain. Have introduced likely chances of rain for Sunday. Thankfully, the severe weather threat looks zero at this point, and temperatures will be simply too warm for any wintry weather concerns.  Next week, the weather pattern gets really interesting around this part of the country. An upper low will dive down the West Coast late Friday and set up a southwesterly flow over the Lower Mississippi valley this weekend. A stalled front will lift back north into the Mid-South and will interact with several short...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 8:45 am CST Wednesday January 25, 2023 After a wet, dreary night here in the mid-south, things are starting to dry out as of 8:45 am this morning. Temperatures are pretty cold but still above freezing in all locations. The clouds will be stubborn for the most part today, but there could be some spots of sunshine for those lucky people out there :).  A dry next few days is expected with moderating temperatures. Highs will go from the upper 30s to potentially to near 55 degrees on Saturday with dry conditions as mentioned above. On Sunday, our next round of rain showers appears likely to move through the mid south. At this point, temperatures look to be way too warm for any wintry weather concerns, and the severe weather threat looks very low at this point. Decided to add "Possible" chances of rain for the Sunday time frame. On Monday, we may very well be in between systems locally. I think we will see mostly cloudy skies on Mond...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 12:29 pm CST Monday January 23, 2023 Northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will persist today resulting in dry and mostly sunny skies. A transient ridge and surface high pressure will quickly shift east late this afternoon and overnight. A return flow aloft will set up early tomorrow morning as the high pressure shifts over to Eastern Tennessee. A deep trough will approach the area from the west tomorrow afternoon. This will bring rain showers which could start as early as midday in some locations. I do think most of our area will see 1 inch of rainfall out of the system at bare minimum. The wintry precipitation is a very tricky forecast. Latest guidance coming off the Hi-Res output suggests the heavy snow line will be much farther south. Under this scenario, Northwest Tennessee (North of I-40) could see significant amounts of snow and travel impacts. There is still a very high degree of uncertainty in the wintry aspect of the f...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 7:19 pm CST Friday January 20, 2023 Currently, temperatures are in the 40s and 50s across the area. Clear skies will prevail through tomorrow morning. Precipitation free weather is expected with lots of sun early in your Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, clouds will increase across the region ahead of our next system, which arrives late Saturday night into early Sunday. Some models indicate there could be some sleet, snow mixing with the rain early Sunday morning. At this time, conditions do not look all that favorable and temperatures should be well above freezing, so have opted to leave mention of this out of the 7-day forecast.  On Monday, we will be in between systems. Skies should remain on the cloudy side, but for the most part, it will be dry. Wouldn't be totally surprised to see a few sprinkles squeezed out as there will be some moisture in the atmosphere.  On Tuesday, a dynamic and potent storm system is poised to impact the...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 2:33 pm CST Thursday January 19, 2023 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite imagery trends place an upper level low over Wisconsin and embedded within a longwave trough axis that extends from the Great Lakes Region/Upper Midwest back through the Southwest United States. Meanwhile, at the surface a secondary cold front is located across portions of the area and north Central Mississippi. At 2:30 pm this afternoon, temperatures are in the 50s and 60s areawide. Wintry precipitation in a highly progressive pattern will be the main challenge in today's forecast issuance.  Gusty winds have diminished across the region as the pressure gradient begins to relax. This trend is expected to continue. The NWS has cancelled the wind advisory issued earlier today, and that seems to be the right call.  Tonight, high pressure is expected to build into the Mid-South resulting in a return to precipitation free conditions and temperatures falling into the 30s ...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 1:46 am CST Wednesday January 18, 2023 SHORT TERM : (Now through Saturday) ***Severe storms likely this afternoon and evening across the area***  Currently, a few showers are beginning to pop up across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel early this morning. Expect showers to increase in coverage over the next few hours as warm air advection from the gulf of Mexico begins. Temperatures at this hour are in the 40s and 50s areawide. Today is expected to be an active weather day across the area. The Storm Prediction Center continues to outline a Level 2 risk of severe weather across virtually all of West Tennessee and the mid south region. Looking at the parameters, not much change has occurred. The Short Term convective allowing models continue to paint aggressively high CAPE values across the region, while the global ensembles continue to show little to no Instability. Wind shear is expected to be exceptionally strong and very sup...

Severe storms are once again threatening the mid south for your day on Wednesday. Wednesday is  a FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY as the threat is increasing for our area. All modes of severe currently look possible. Stay with Brady's Weather page for additional information as it is received. 

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 7:40 am CST Tuesday January 17, 2023 SHORT TERM (Today Through Tomorrow)  This morning's short term forecast issuance will be dominated by the potential for severe thunderstorms across the region tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center overnight upgraded the entire mid south to a Level 2/5 SLIGHT risk of severe storms. Looking at some of the parameters, Instability still looks quite limited across our region. The more concerning part of this forecast is perhaps the wind energy which is very high tomorrow. Strong amounts of wind energy can sometimes overcome a limited amount of Instability and provide severe weather. The wind dynamics are extremely favorable, as are most of the severe weather parameters tomorrow. If more Instability can be realized than what is expected at the moment, a dangerous severe weather day could be in store for the mid south. This scenario however looks unlikely at this current time, but trends will be monitor...

 Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 8:39 pm CST Sunday January 15, 2023 SHORT TERM:  (Now through Tuesday night) Currently, a peaceful night of weather is underway in the mid south. Temperatures are in the 50s with clear skies area wide. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the night ahead of a quick moving storm system which expected to impact our area tomorrow. Scattered showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are expected tomorrow into Tuesday morning. The good news is, the lack of instability and favorable thermodynamic support will keep any severe weather threat generally nil.  LONG TERM : (Wednesday through Saturday) The long term forecast starts off with an active day of weather for Wednesday. Our next storm system is poised to impact the entire area Wednesday afternoon with widespread showers and Thunderstorms. A new surface low is expected to develop in or around the ARKLATEX and track northeastward throughout the day Wednesday. An increasing...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 6:12 pm CST Saturday January 14, 2023 Dry and mild weather is expected to continue for 1 more day before our next weather system moves into the mid south on Monday. Temperatures be slowly warming over the next few days. On Monday, a quick hitting system will bring scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of Thunder. I don't expect much of a storm threat with this system, as Instability is quite low. Rain amounts should remain light. Rain will end Tuesday morning, and Tuesday afternoon and evening look dry for now.  The next system will waste no time moving into the region. A potent mid level trough will push out of the Southwestern United States and into the southern plains by Tuesday night. Moisture lifting north from the Gulf of Mexico will overspread the region. A piece of energy rotating around the base of the trough will move into the Arkaltex Wednesday afternoon and evening. A surface low may develop across Arkansas and track ...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page 3:10 pm CST Friday January 13, 2023 ..SUMMARY... Dry and tranquil weather is anticipated until our next system approaches our area of the West Sunday night. Temperatures will gradually warm each day. Rain Showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will start off the work week and may last into Tuesday morning. A brief period of dry weather is expected before the arrival of our next big weather system Tuesday night into Wednesday. See discussion below for details.  ..DISCUSSION... A cloudy and chilly day today due to an upper level trough moving slowly across the Tennessee River valley. High pressure is building to our west and will settle into the Mid South later on tonight. This high pressure will squash rain chances for the next day or so, and will also allow temperatures to gradually warm each day with highs reaching the 50s and possibly lower 60s. Our next system will spin up from the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region and move east...

 Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page  4:03 pm CST Tuesday January 10, 2023 Currently: Skies are mostly clear around the mid-south. Temperatures are in the 50s and 60s. The sunshine came in abundance today. Over the next few hours, increasing clouds will prevail. There could be some areas with mist and drizzle especially near the TN/KY border. This mist and drizzle will help to keep the potential for dense fog somewhat low, though patchy areas of fog are expected tonight and into tomorrow morning.  By tomorrow, a brief respite in the rain is expected through tomorrow evening. By tomorrow night, an area of low pressure will lift to our north, and a warm front will lift through the area, providing for showers and thunderstorms to develop by late tomorrow night. The Storm Prediction center has outlined a small portion of our area under a level 1 risk of severe storms (Marginal). Wind shear will be an abundance, but the unfavorable time of day as well as the lack of b...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page  12:12 pm CST Monday January 9, 2023  Currently, clear skies and very light winds are prevailing across the mid south and will continue to prevail for the next couple of days. Expect highs at or just below average today and tomorrow. On Wednesday, temperatures will make a big jump into the upper 60s. Increasing clouds will prevail and winds should also increase on Wednesday ahead of our next big weather maker.  Wednesday night, a potent mid level trough will race into the area. A surface low pressure will track northeast of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a trailing cold front moving through the mid south. Current model guidance continues to have a number of disagreements with respects to timing and the finer details. The GFS remains the more aggressive with bring a lot of low level moisture and mid 60 dewpoints into the area. Other models are less aggressive with the moisture return. Main limiting factors i...

 Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page  11:33 am CST Saturday January 7, 2023  An area of low pressure with an associated cold front will track through the region later today and into Sunday Morning. This is expected to bring numerous showers to the region. A couple of thunderstorms are possible given the elevated Instability, however severe storms are not expected. Rainfall amounts with system are largely expected to remain at or below 1/2 inch. Some areas could receive slightly higher amounts, but that is far from certain.  Currently, a few rain showers have developed across the area. Any rain should remain light for the next few hours. A lot of cloud cover should keep temperatures in the 40s with a few spots potentially hitting 50. Behind this system, dry and tranquil weather is expected through Wednesday of next week. Temperatures will remain at or just below average for this time of the year.  Our next weather maker appears to move in Thursday and Fr...