Brady's Weather Blog

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page  5:50 pm CST Friday December 30, 2022  SHORT TERM : (Today Through Sunday)  A slow moving cold front is in the process of moving across the Mid-South tonight and is allowing showers to continue. Expect showers to continue through the night before exiting the area tomorrow morning. There is the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder given the slightly elevated CAPE we have, but the severe weather threat should remain nil. A dry and mild New Year's eve is expected with daytime highs in the 60s. Some locations could even hit 70! This will be in advance of our next system which is discussed in depth below. LONG TERM :  At the beginning of the period, a strong upper level trough will make its way inland along the West Coast. Models are in agreement with cyclogenesis as the disturbance moves over the Rocky Mountains, with an occluded low emerging over the Central Plains by Monday. Ahead of this system, a potent southerly flow i...

Daily Blog and Forecast Brady's Weather Page  11:44 am CST Thursday Dec 29, 2022  SHORT TERM : (Today Through Saturday)  Currently, clouds are abundant across the region, but very mild temperatures compared to the last several days around the area. Current radar analysis shows a few sprinkles trying to develop. I expect the sprinkles to remain sparse in coverage, but the clouds will remain numerous for the rest of today. For tonight, I expect rain to increase to our west, however any rain that develops may take awhile to reach West Tennessee. Counties along the MS river stand the best chances of seeing rain tomorrow morning, but the rest of the area should see rain tomorrow night. Widespread 1-2 inches of rain is expected, as well as mild temperatures.  I remain optimistic that the rain will end just in time for any new year's celebrations on Saturday afternoon and night. Forecast guidance continues to be consistent in showing this. Once the rain moves out, we will b...

 Good Afternoon friends! This is your daily blog for Wednesday December 28th.  The anticipated pattern change is underway as expected and is poised to bring spring-like warmth to the mid south. Currently, temperatures are in the 50s and 60s areawide, with lots of sunshine. Clouds will start to increase going into the evening and overnight hours, but precipitation is not expected other than maybe some sprinkles. By sunrise tomorrow, increasing moisture should allow for widespread showers to develop, with perhaps a few claps of thunder. Overall, lack of substantial instability will prelude thunderstorm chances, but periods of heavy rain are expected over the next several days. A widespread 3-6 inches can be expected, and could cause some flooding problems given the recent snowmelt and moist ground. Temperatures will continue warming throughout the week.  On New year's eve, a 24 hour lull in the rainfall appears likely. So anybody with plans for New Year's eve should be ok w...

 Good Evening! This is an update to the forecast from earlier to mention the potential for fog/freezing fog across much of West Tennessee. NWS Memphis has posted a Freezing Fog Advisory for the eastern half of the area through 8 am tomorrow. Watch out on bridges and overpasses tonight and tomorrow morning as they could become a little slick. 

 Good Morning! This is your daily forecast for December 27, 2022 West Tennessee and the Mid-South is in store for a significant warn up as we move through the work week with rain chances returning by late week and into parts of the weekend. This warm up should result in rapid melting of residual snow and ice and should allow you to put your heavy coats back in the closet -- at least for now!  Looking at the big picture, a sharp trough is translating across the central United States this morning. The mid south is on the back side of this trough, resulting in a dry northwesterly flow aloft today. This will keep things dry and sunny across the area, with temperatures warming above freezing for the first time in several days. I anticipate dry weather today, and most of tomorrow as a zonal flow with an attendant high pressure builds in. Tomorrow night, a few areas of drizzle are possible, but I do not see any evidence of significant rainfall through the majority of the work week. T...

 Good Morning friends! This is your daily weather blog and forecast for Monday December 26.  Current radar analysis early this morning shows snow showers moving over the mid south. These snow showers will continue to spread over the entire area before moving out around 9 or 10 am this morning. Slick travel is expected as surface temperatures remain well below freezing after the major cold spell the other night. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all of West Tennessee until 3:00 pm this afternoon. Tonight, temperatures will drop back below freezing which means anything that melts (if any) will refreeze into black ice, potentially making travel difficult in the morning as well.  By Mid-week, a disturbance moves in from the west bringing a chance for showers to the area. Moderating temperatures will keep this precipitation all liquid. By the weekend, temperatures moderate into the 60s and model guidance is even hinting at a shot for strong to severe storms by the beg...

 This is your daily forecast for December 22, 202 🚨  Dangerous weather expected for the mid south this afternoon. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions  🚨 Currently, radar is showing some light rain or flurries around West Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. This may not be making it all the way to the surface. This is only an appetizer as to what is coming later today. Currently, temperatures are in the 40s everywhere as expected. The inbound arctic air and snow will be the heavyweight of today's forecast issuance.  Model guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the arrival of the arctic cold front by mid afternoon across the northern sections of the area. Precipitation is expected to develop along the front initially as rain, but will quickly transition to snow as the temperatures plunges. Large scale upper forcing will create quite a bit of lift, especially north of I-40. This creates a very conducive environment to support accumulating snowfa...

 This is an updated blog and forecast.  No significant changes have been made to the current forecast. We are still on track for brutal cold and some snow across the area tomorrow afternoon and night. Still expect snow accumulations from 1-4 inches across the area. Areas south of Jackson TN may only see a dusting of snow. Regardless, travel is strongly discouraged tomorrow afternoon through the weekend. Should note that the NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the area.  CONFIDENCE:   High on all elements. 

 Good Morning. This is your daily blog and forecast for Wednesday December 21, 2022 One more dry day is on tap for the mid-south before the historic cold airmass plunges into the region tomorrow afternoon. Highs today will be in the 40s everywhere with stubborn cloud cover being present all day long. Can't completely a couple peeks of sun for the very lucky folks! Tonight, there is some chance for some pre-frontal showers to develop. Not yet sold on this idea, but will monitor the trends throughout the day and make forecast changes as needed.  ** First Alert Weather Day Thursday Through Monday ** The big story for this forecast will be the historic cold that is expected to plunge through the area tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Chill Warning for the entire area for tomorrow night and Friday. Wind chills are expected to drop a mere 40+ degrees in a 3-6 hour timeframe! As the front moves through, expect rain to change quickl...

   **** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY : THURSDAY 12/22 - MONDAY 12/26 ****  Good Evening. This is your daily blog and forecast for Tuesday December 20, 2022. SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)  The short term forecast remains simple and tranquil. Temperatures will be a little on the chilly side with mid to upper 40s for daytime highs Wednesday. Skies will be cloudy, but I do not expect any rainfall Wednesday. Model guidance tries to develop pre-frontal showers Wednesday night, but confidence on this occurring is low.  LONG TERM: (Thursday Through Tuesday)  *** Arctic Air to plunge into the area Thursday afternoon with dangerous cold temperatures *** On Thursday, a deep upper level low pressure system is progged to track from the Northern Great Plains eastward into the Great Lakes. The trailing Arctic cold front is expected to move into our area Thursday afternoon and evening. The better chances for rainfall Thursday will be directly along the front itself. A...

   **** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY : THURSDAY 12/22 - MONDAY 12/26 ****  Good Morning! This is your daily forecast for Monday December 19, 2022.  SHORT TERM: (Today Through Wednesday)  Current radar analysis this morning shows some light precipitation near the TN river, moving out of West Tennessee. Radar trends also show some light precipitation moving into the Jonesboro Arkansas area as of 730 am this morning. I expect a few sprinkles this morning, and there could be couple of sleet pellets or snow flurries, but do not expect any impacts this morning. Consider the rest of the short term the "calm before the storm". A zonal flow is expected to set up, which will keep our area locally dry through Wednesday. Temperatures may struggle to get out of the 30s for highs given the extensive cloud cover that we are expecting.  LONG TERM: (Thursday through Monday)  Thursday will be a day of drastic change here in the Mid-South. At the beginning of the period, a we...

 Good Evening! This is an updated forecast.  Several changes have been made to this forecast tonight. The most significant change in the forecast is to take out the forecast for sunshine for Monday - Wednesday timeframe this week. Model guidance has consistently shown a strong signal for mostly cloudy skies for the last few runs. Also, still can't rule out a stray snow shower tomorrow morning, but the signal has backed off significantly on this scenario.  The late week timeframe is still the focus of the forecast packages. Arctic air is still expected to plunge into the mid south Thursday and will likely see well below normal temperatures through Monday. Accumulating snow is also looking pretty likely Thursday. It is too early to specify exact amounts, but at least an inch of snow can be expected. 

  **** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY : WEDNESDAY 12/21 - MONDAY 12/26 ****  Good Morning! Here is your daily forecast blog for December 18, 2022!  Key Messages:   1.) Generally quiet weather over the next few days.  2.) A few rain or snow showers are possible Monday. Confidence is low in this scenario.  3.) A significant arctic outbreak is expected later this week, with the potential for accumulating snowfall.  SHORT TERM: (Today - Tuesday)  The short term is expected to remain largely tranquil. Chilly temperatures are expected for the duration of the short term. Model guidance has continued to show some potential for rainfall or a few snow showers across the area Monday morning, before transitioning to all rain by midday. No impacts are expected from this. Guidance has backed off on showing this in the previous run of the models, but will continue a mention for now. Tuesday is expected to be a chilly day for the area, but we will see lots of sun with h...

 Good afternoon! This is your daily blog and forecast for December 17, 2022 SHORT TERM: (Now through Tuesday)  The short term forecast should remain largely quiet as an area of high pressure will dominate our weather locally for the next day or so. Temperatures across the area at this hour are in the 40s and daytime highs will probably remain in the 40s over the next few days. Overnight lows could fall below freezing this weekend, but this is only an appetizer as to what's coming.  On Monday, model guidance continues to hint at a small piece of energy moving over the mid south. This could bring some snow showers to the region for Monday night. At this point, this does not look like a big event for our area. Snow amounts should remain less than 1", but as always trends will be monitored for any changes to this forecast. Tuesday will be another chilly, but sunny day with highs in the 40s.  LONG TERM (Wednesday - Sunday night) ** FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...

  𝐅𝐈𝐑𝐒𝐓 𝐀𝐋𝐄𝐑𝐓 𝐖𝐄𝐀𝐓𝐇𝐄𝐑 𝐃𝐀𝐘 -- 𝐖𝐄𝐃𝐍𝐄𝐒𝐃𝐀𝐘 𝐍𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓 𝟏𝟐/𝟐𝟏 - 𝐒𝐔𝐍𝐃𝐀𝐘 𝐍𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓 𝟏𝟐/𝟐𝟓 Very dangerous cold is on the way for our area late next week, potentially starting as early as Thursday and lasting through the Christmas Holiday. There could also be some snow in our area. With this in mind, I am activating First Alert Weather Day's which will go into effect Wednesday night at 9:00 pm and will remain in effect through 12:00 am Monday morning. This first alert weather day is subject to change over the next few days as additional model guidance comes in. Stay tuned!

 Good afternoon! This is your daily weather blog and forecast for December 16, 2022.  The primary focus for today's blog will be the extreme cold that is headed our way for the latter part of next week, and also could bring some snow.  SHORT TERM: (Rest of today - Monday) The short term period will remain largely a quite one, aided by an area of high pressure that will remain shunted to our south for the next couple days. No significant chances for precipitation are expected for the next several days. Highs will generally be in the 40s with overnight lows in the upper 20s and 30s for the entire area. Forecast guidance continues to develop an area of low pressure over the gulf coast early next week. This could bring some snow showers into the area Monday and Monday night. At this time, I do not expect a significant impact from this first system, but as always model trends will be monitored.  LONG TERM: (Tuesday - Saturday)  Perhaps the biggest concern of all the ...

 Good Afternoon. This is your Daily for December 15th, 2022.  SHORT TERM: (Rest of Today - Saturday night) The main story in the short term will be the well below normal temperatures, and perhaps a couple of chances for a few snow flurries or sprinkles around the area.  A occluded storm system is making its way across the northern tier of the United States at this hour, bringing blizzard conditions to the Dakota's and Minnesota. An area of high pressure is shunted just to our south, which is keeping us dry, and for the first time in 14 days...we actually have sunshine! FINALLY! Temperature are in the mid to upper 40s everywhere. Tonight, expect clear skies, and much colder conditions. For the rest of the short term, expect high temperatures daily in the 40s, maybe reaching 50 in some locations. We will remain largely dry, and overnight lows will drop into the 30s each night.  SUNDAY: Expect a good amount of sunshine as high pressure will continue to dominate our weat...

 Good Afternoon friends! This is your daily weather blog! A gloomy, rainy, cloudy day in underway here in the mid-south. Temperatures are chilly hanging around in the low to mid 40s areawide. Expect scattered rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to continue through 8pm tonight. After 8pm, things should turn dry and cold. After days of no sunshine, the sun will return tomorrow, but it maybe in the afternoon before it makes an appearance. Temperatures will remain quite cold for the rest of the week, though no precipitation to mention at this point.  THE WEEKEND: The Majority of the weekend looks fine. A bag of cold air will be situated over the mid-south, keeping temperatures around or just below average for the weekend. Sunday night, medium range  models try to develop a low pressure system over the area, which could bring a shot for a wintry mix. Confidence in this occurring remains very low due to model inconsistencies, but will continue to monitor the trend...

 This is an updated blog.  Models now indicate another round of rain between 11am and 7 pm tomorrow. Clouds and fog in the morning as well as continued gusty winds. This is a change in the forecast from the earlier blog. No severe weather is anticipated. 

 Good Afternoon! This is your Daily Blog For Tuesday December 13th, 2022.  Hello friends! It is a dry Tuesday so far as predicted, BUT the rain is coming. Tracking a line of showers from near Popular Bluff Missouri all the way down to Pine Bluff Arkansas as of 3:00 pm this afternoon. I want to stress that there is ZERO severe weather in this line. Few claps of thunder, some lightning are certainly possible as it moves through the region for tonight. Because of this additional rain, and the already 3 inches of rain we have gotten over the last week, flooding could become a problem in spots. National weather service has issued a FLOOD WATCH until midnight tonight for southwest parts of West Tennessee (South of Jackson).  REST OF WEEK: For the rest of the week, expect a prolonged stretch of dry weather. Temperatures will be around average for this time of the year. Watching a big cold snap for the weekend. Temperatures could drop into the 20s this weekend in many places for ...

 Good evening all. This is your daily blog for Monday December 12, 2022.  A chilly, but dry day around the mid-south. Hope you enjoyed this dry day, because tomorrow, heavy raim returns to the forecast as mentioned below. TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: On Tuesday, the morning and part of the afternoon will remain dry. Temperatures are expected to be about 10 degrees warmer than what they were today. There is a chance for a strong storm or two with the line of rain and storms that moves through. 1-3 inches of rain is expected before all said and done. This amount of rain on top of Saturated soils could lead to a localized flood threat.  WEDNESDAY: On Wednesday, we dry out. There will likely be some stubborn clouds over the area Wednesday morning, but I do expect the sun to come back out Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 50s.  REST OF THE WEEK: Beyond Wednesday, a big drop in temperatures to near what it should be for this time of the year. A nice dry stretch of...

 Good afternoon! This is your daily blog for Sunday December 11, 2022.  REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW: Probably two of the best days over the next week. Think most places will see sunshine at least one of the two days. Temperatures will be moderating tomorrow in preparation for our next storm system which will arrive Tuesday.  TUESDAY: A heavy rain event is likely to unfold with the potential everyone to see 2-4 inches of rain. Localized flooding cannot be ruled out, however due to how dry it has been, do not expect or foresee a significant flooding problem  Beyond Tuesday, temperatures turn much colder behind the front, and the cold is likely here to stay. In fact, the week of Christmas, the pattern could favor a few white snowflakes. Nothing on the radar at the moment, but will watch closely 

  𝐀 𝐃𝐄𝐂𝐄𝐌𝐁𝐄𝐑 𝐍𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓 𝐔𝐍𝐋𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐀𝐍𝐘 𝐎𝐓𝐇𝐄𝐑: 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟏𝟎, 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏. 𝐎𝐍𝐄 𝐘𝐄𝐀𝐑 𝐋𝐀𝐓𝐄𝐑. On this day, one year ago..... whole towns, people's lives, kid's Christmas presents....,homes, businesses were ripped apart by a historic, unbelievable outbreak of nocturnal tornadoes and severe weather. Never in our wildest dreams did we imagine that we would watch the towns of Samburg Tennessee, Mayfield Kentucky, and plenty others get ripped apart by a 1 mile wide monster with 190 Mph winds. In the days and weeks after the event, many of you reached out and said Thank you. However, In a time like this, no thanks is necessary. Being part of the weather community, it is our job to warn people of dangerous weather, and save lives. That is what we did that night. In the days after the events of December 10, I heard some incredible stories of survival. One in particular came from an older couple who lived in Mayfield KY. They lived in a mobile home, and t...

 Good evening! This your daily blog for Friday December 9th! The sun returned! Only briefly, but hey we will take what we can get! I hope you enjoyed it because we have some changes coming. For the rest of tonight, I cannot totally rule out a rain shower, but most of the precipitation comes tomorrow as you will see below.   TOMORROW: Tomorrow will feature Rain for all! Think most everybody will get at least a 1/2 inch of rain. Given the elevated instability tomorrow, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder, but severe weather threat is zero.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY: "The calm before the storm". Literally. Sunday, I do think the clouds remain stubborn but some sun is possible. On Monday, I think the sun could return for all, but model guidance has not been in great agreement for the Monday timeframe.  TUESDAY: Tuesday, while severe weather is still on the table, I am beginning to think the main severe weather problems will remain to our south, though we are still several ...

 Doing a very rare updated blog to mention the potential for Dense fog, especially north of I-40 tomorrow morning. Give yourself a few extra minutes tomorrow morning on your way to work or school or whatever you have planned.  Tomorrow will be dry for all. Clouds will be stubborn. A brief period tomorrow afternoon with peeks of sun is possible, though unlikely at this point. 

 I mentioned earlier for everyone to stay tuned to future blogs regarding the severe potential for next week. Concern is growing for our potential for what could be a substantial severe weather event across the Lower MS valley and into the mid south region.  The Storm Prediction center has officially outlined a portion of our area into the 15% category which is equal to the standard slight risk. There is higher 30% category (Enhanced risk) just to our south and west. However, don't get so bogged down in the higher probabilities being south of us at this time. We are 5-6 days out still, so you can expect further changes in these outlooks going forward.  The bottom line is...significant severe weather is distinctly possible late Tuesday afternoon, potentially overnight Tuesday. There are still a number of uncertainties that prelude a better assessment of our severe risk locally such as amount of Instability, timing, and specific storm impacts. At the present time, all sever...

 Good morning. This is your daily Weather blog for Thursday December 8, 2022.  TODAY AND TONIGHT: Moderate to heavy rain is expected through about midday today before slowly moving off to our east. After around 3 pm, the majority of the heavy stuff should be out of the area, but we could still see some mist and drizzle around the area. Tonight, clouds will be stubborn. I do see the potential for fog tonight. Will have to watch that closely.  TOMORROW: Tomorrow, clouds for pretty much everyone all day long. There will be a *very brief* window tomorrow afternoon for some peeks of sunshine. I think the majority will see clouds though. No rain is expected tomorrow. Could see a few spots get some mist and drizzle.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Saturday looks very wet for all. Off and on showers seem likely for a good part of the day Saturday. Temperatures should be comfortable. On Sunday, we dry out, but the clouds will linger just like Friday. Again, a few peeks of sun are possi...

 Good morning Friends. This is your daily weather blog for Wednesday December 7, 2022.  TODAY: Today will a mostly dry day for everyone. However, it will be dreary with stubborn clouds hanging around all day today. There could be a few peeks of sun, but don't look for full blown sunshine today.  TONIGHT: Rain will start to move in tonight between 12 am and 3 am. Rain will be heavy at times and will continue into your Thursday through about Midday. After Midday, the heavy rain moves out, and once again, we are left with stubborn clouds and maybe some mist and drizzle for the remainder of your Thursday.  THE WEEKEND: Another Wet, dreary weekend is in store. Potential for storms Saturday afternoon as there will be some elevated Instability. No severe weather is currently Expected Saturday. Sunday, scattered rain showers look pretty likely. Not everyone will get a rain shower Sunday.  Keeping a close eye on Tuesday of Next week as that could feature a big severe wea...

  FIRST NOTICE :  Consider this your first notice to the December 12th-December 14th timeframe. There is a very strong signal for what could be a pretty legitimate severe weather set-up in this part of the country. It's too early to be real specific, but something to keep an eye on.  Looking at some things behind the scenes, It does look like we will have some Instability, pretty high dewpoints, and plenty of shear for storms to work with. Will continue to monitor this in the upcoming days. 

 Good Evening Friends, this is your daily weather blog from Brady's Weather page. This is something new that I thought would be a good idea to start doing, as here I can go into a lot more detail with upcoming weather events, without necessarily going on Facebook live.  TONIGHT : A few strong storms seem possible along a warm front which has been lifting northward through West Tennessee today. This is a very low confidence scenario and I honestly don't know if this will play out. If storms do develop, a gust of wind or a small tornado are possible, so just make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings.  TOMORROW : Most of the day will be dry, with a lot of stubborn clouds. a few peeks of sun are possible, though not expecting this everywhere. Late tomorrow night, moderate to heavy rain moves in and continues through the first half of your Thursday. Thursday afternoon, we should dry out some, with a little cool down, but nothing too crazy.  NEXT WEEK: Watching ...