Brady's Weather Blog

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE WEDNESDAY JANUARY 17, 2024 @ 6:04 PM .. DISCUSSION ... Arctic high pressure is situated over the southeast United States this evening. Temperatures today warmed into the 20s to around freezing under all sunshine, which has helped to melt the snow/ice off of the roadways. Temperatures however are expected to fall quickly as a result of clear skies, and relatively light winds, so anything that has melted will refreeze tonight, creating a potentially dangerous black ice situation.  By late tonight, a weak mid level shortwave will push into the Southern Plains and into the Mid South by Thursday morning. As a result, expect overrunning to develop across the entire area early Thursday morning. Model soundings show a moistening profile that will be supportive of frozen precipitation during the day. Temperatures will start off in the teens and 20s but should rise into the lower to mid 30s everywhere. I am a bit weary of the models that show us going above freezing tomo...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE MONDAY JANUARY 15, 2024 @ 3:40 PM CST ...DISCUSSION... Snow accumulation has officially ended in West Tennessee (for now!), but the impact continues to be significant. Snow/ice covered road remains, and conditions are not expected to improve as temperatures will remain bitterly cold. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits tonight, with wind chills -3 to -8 degrees area wide. As a result, we will have a wind chill advisory through 10:00 am on Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate some on Wednesday, but probably not above freezing, with sunshine expected all day. The NBM guidance puts temperatures in the upper 20s on Wednesday, but feel this is a bit too high considering snowpack on the ground.  Things get tricky heading into Thursday. Another advancing system is expected to approach the Mid South. Guidance seems to want to rapidly increase temperatures above freezing for areas south of I-40, and keep temperatures right at or very near freezing for areas...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE: SATURDAY JANAURY 13, 2024 @ 3:02 PM CST KEY MESSAGES:   1.) A Winter Storm is expected to impact the entire Mid South with accumulating snowfall beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday.  2.) Dangerously cold temperatures are also expected tonight, and will get colder going into the early part of next week.  3.) Expect hazardous travel conditions most of next week.  ..DISCUSSION... ***MAJOR WINTER STORM AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED*** The primary focus for today's forecast issuance is going to be on the approaching dangerously cold temperatures and winter storm. The long awaited arctic airmass will begin to impact the Mid South this evening, plummeting temperatures to the teens by Sunday morning. Ahead of the front, conditions are dry and chilly this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s areawide. Take advantage of the above freezing temperatures to get those pipes protected against the cold! W...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE: FRIDAY JANUARY 12, 2024 @ 4:10 PM CST KEY MESSAGES:  1.) A Winter storm is taking aim at the Mid South for Sunday night and Monday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the entire mid south 2.) Bitter cold is now filtering into the Mid South. The air will only get colder from here on out.  3.) The combination of snowfall and bitter cold will create hazardous travel Monday and Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.  SHORT TERM:   Latest surface analysis depicts a reinforcing cold front parallel to the Mississippi River. Behind the front, temperatures have dipped into the upper teens and lower 20s in West and Central Arkansas. These air temperatures will filter into the Mid South causing overnight lows to drop into the 20s overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Ahead of this front, strong gusty winds will continue to be in the 20-30 mph range with gusts near 50 mph at times. A wind advisory remains in effect areawide through Midnight tonight. Cool...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE:  FRIDAY JANUARY 12, 2024 @ 7:52 AM  KEY MESSAGES:  1.) A stormy/active day expected today with highs winds, heavy rain all forecast for today. This makes today a "First Alert Weather Day".  2.) A very dangerous and potentially damaging blast of arctic air will envelop the entire area Saturday night. A week or more of below freezing temperatures is expected. Wind chills below zero and as low as -10 to  -20 is forecast.  3.) Accumulating Snow fall is possible Sunday night into Monday. Still too early to talk about amounts.  SHORT TERM: (Today Through Saturday) A very active morning of weather is underway across the area. We do have a Tornado Watch that is in effect for the far southern counties of West Tennessee. This is the area where the greatest chances of severe weather will remain for the rest of the morning, before this system moves out of here. Over the rest of the area, rain is on-going. Expect most locations to pick up anyw...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE THURSDAY JANUARY 11, 2024 @ 7:12 PM  ..UPDATED DISCUSSION.... The key messages stated in the last discussion remain valid in this updated discussion. The overall forecast is in good shape. We continue a Wind Advisory for all of the Mid South for tomorrow. I do expect a part of this advisory to get upgraded to a High Wind Warning at some point. Tomorrow will be extremely windy with 45-55 mph gusts. Prepare for power outages tomorrow, and the potential for trees to come down. The remainder of the forecast is in great shape. We still expect accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday. 3-4 inches of snow seems like a good bet, followed by extremely dangerous wind chills and temperatures Monday night through Wednesday at the minimum. 

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE THURSDAY JANUARY 11, 2024 @ 12:47 PM  KEY MESSAGES:  1.) Strong to potentially damaging gradient wind gusts (45-60 mph) are expected tonight into tomorrow, along with heavy rain, and the potential for a few storms mainly Friday AM.  2.) Still tracking the potential for accumulating snow Sunday into Monday next week. It remains too early to be specific with any accumulation potential.  3.) A blast of arctic air invades the region beginning tomorrow night, with the coldest air filtering in Monday PM. Widespread wind chills of -15 to - 24 are expected.  SHORT TERM:   A very active short and long term forecast today! Midday GOES water vapor shows an upper low pressure over Arizona at this hour. This feature will quickly move into the southern plains by midnight tonight. Strongly diffluent flow will overspread the Mid South prior to sunrise, before a 991 mb surface low tracks directly overhead, while deepening to 983 mb. By 6 am, there shoul...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE WEDNESDAY JANUARY 10, 2024 @ 3:35 PM  KEY MESSAGES:   1.) Quiet weather "for now" -- but our next storm system is on the way for Friday and Friday night with rain and strong winds.  2.) Another storm system arrives Sunday night with increasing potential for accumulating snowfall across the region.  3.) Bitter cold sets in Monday night and likely lasts a couple days or more.  SHORT TERM:   The short term forecast this evening will perhaps be one of the shorter ones we have for a few days. Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 40s with a few places hitting 50. Overall, tranquil weather is expected for the remainder of the short term period. We will see increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon ahead of the Friday storm system which we will discuss at the beginning of the long term discussion.  LONG TERM :  *** LIFE THREATENING COLD TEMPERATURES  EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK *** The long term picks up with Friday. A strong are...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE Wednesday January 10, 2024 @ 3:40 am  KEY MESSAGES:   1.) A very similar storm system moves in on Friday with more rain and gusty winds!  2.) a blast of arctic air will move into the region this weekend and early next week. Destructively cold temperatures are forecast with lows approaching zero.  3.) Potential remains for an impactful winter storm Sunday night into Monday.  SHORT TERM :  Finally, after a windy last couple days, the winds have begun to taper off! This trend will continue, but things will remain relatively tranquil for the next 24-30 hours. Business however picks up with Thursday night as a strong upper trough moves out of the Rockies. Models are in decent agreement with a moderate-heavy rain band moving through the forecast region, bringing a much needed 1-2 inches of rain. The bigger impact however may come from the strong gradient winds. Winds could gust at 40 to 50 mph, and there is some concern that these gusts could...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE Tuesday January 9, 2024 7:41 pm  KEY MESSAGES:   1.) Tranquil conditions will persist through much of Thursday with temperatures in the 40s for the entire area.  2.) Friday, our next system rolls in with potentially stronger wind gusts and an additional 1-2 inches of beneficial rain.  3.) Still Watching the Sunday night - Wednesday time frame of next week for the dual threat of a winter storm, which could get under way Sunday night, and last through Monday and extreme cold temperatures. SHORT TERM :  The short term forecast remains largely unchanged from earlier, with the exception of a few snow flurries being reported this evening across NW Tennessee. This is the result of residual moisture on the back side of the departing system interacting with colder air. Do not anticipate any accumulations or impacts with any of these snow flurries. For more information on the short term forecast, please refer to the first blog issued at 12:58 pm....

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE Tuesday January 9, 2024 @ 12:58 pm KEY MESSAGES :  1.) A brief 36 hour lull is expected between now and Thursday night.  2.) A second storm system arrives Friday morning with more rain and gusty winds. There could be some wintry weather on the backside of this system, but no impactful accumulation is expected.  3.) Dangerously cold temperatures is expected late this weekend into early next week, which could set the stage for a significant winter storm on or around MLK day.  SHORT TERM :  Compared to 24 hours ago, the short term forecast is rather tranquil (for now)! The rain has moved east out of our area, but winds will remain gusty through about the first half of the overnight before slowly calming down. Temperatures are chilly, as most locations are sitting in the 40s at this hour. For the next 36 hours or so, our area will be "in between" storm systems, with relatively tranquil weather expected through Thursday night. Temperatures will r...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE Monday January 8, 2024, 3:49 pm  KEY MESSAGES :  1.) A potent storm system will bring widespread, soaking rain and strong gusty winds to the region tonight into tomorrow. Potential is there for a quick changeover to non-impactful snow, mainly near the TN river.  2.) Another storm arrives Thursday night and Friday night with more widespread rain, and possibly gusty winds. Too early to determine if wintry weather will be a possibility.  3.) Arctic air plunges into the area Friday night into Saturday morning, with the potential for another storm in our neck of the woods on Monday of next week. Potential is there for accumulating snowfall.  SHORT TERM :  The short term forecast has largely remain unchanged. Widespread rain is overspreading the entire area at this hour, and the winds are slowly increasing. Expect this trend to continue for the next several hours. The winds will be strongest overnight tonight when gusts could exceed 40-50 mph...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE  Monday January 8, 2024 @ 7:42 am  KEY MESSAGES :  Strong winds and rain expected later today. A wind advisory is in effect for all of our area through Tuesday night.  Another storm system moves through Friday night into Saturday with more rain and strong winds.  Arctic airmass settles in behind this system, setting the stage for a potentially significant winter storm early next week.  SHORT TERM : (Now through Friday AM)  The calm before the storm -- and quite literally! Currently, conditions are tranquil across the mid south. Temperatures are in the upper 30s and low 40s everywhere. This tranquil weather does not last long, as a significant surface low will move through the Mid South tonight through Tuesday night. The main impact from this will be from very strong ambient wind gusts up to 50 mph across the entire area. The wind advisory was extended by 6 hours, now in effect until midnight Tuesday night. The other impact to this ...

BRADY'S WEATHER PAGE SUNDAY JANUARY 7, 2024 @ 3:36 PM KEY MESSGAES : - Big Storm System comes through Monday afternoon through Tuesday with strong gusty winds and some much needed rain - Another system will move through on Friday and looks to be a colder system. Uncertain on precipitation types, track, and timing.  - Arctic airmass settles in next weekend, with another storm system early next week.  SHORT TERM : (Now through Thursday) Mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures near 50 degrees is underway across the mid-south. Unfortunately, this benign stretch of weather will not last for about another 24 hours, as our next weather maker is set to arrive tomorrow night, with much needed rain, and very gusty winds. A colorado low is expected to eject from the four coroners region sometime late this afternoon and evening. During its journey across the plains, guidance is in fairly good agreement that this low will deepen to or near 990mb by Tuesday morning.  The overall f...